The latest on the 2020 election

More than 20 million ballots have been cast in 45 states and DC, according to a survey of ballot data by CNN, Edison Research and Catalist.

As of Friday, ballots are available in all 50 states and DC. The votes cast so far represent about 15% of the more than 136 million ballots cast for president in 2016, though experts predict higher turnout this year.

Democrats continue to lead Republicans in ballots cast in each of CNN’s key states for which there is party data available, according to Catalist, a data company that provides data, analytics and other services to Democrats, academics and non-profit issue advocacy organizations. Catalist has analyzed more than 16 million of the ballots cast so far in 36 states.

In Pennsylvania, Democrats account for more than three-quarters of the ballots cast so far. They hold a 20-point lead in Florida and a 32-point lead in North Carolina.

None of these states have seen dramatic changes in party breakdown this week, but the Florida margin has narrowed very slightly (about two points) in the last week, so we’ll watch to see if that continues.

Here are insights from two key states where the candidates are campaigning today:

Florida: After his town hall last night, President Trump wakes up in Florida, where he is scheduled to deliver remarks on seniors and then hold a rally this afternoon. Trump carried the Sunshine State by just over one percentage point in 2016. 

Catalist data analyzed so far shows the number of ballots already cast in Florida has more than doubled compared to four years ago.

Florida Democrats have a major lead over Republicans in ballot returns so far and account for half of all pre-election day votes. This is a stark contrast to four years ago at this point when Republicans led Democrats 43% to 40% in their share of ballots returned.

The racial composition of Florida’s early voting electorate has shifted somewhat since 2016, with White voters making up a slightly smaller share of those who’ve already cast ballots and Black voters making up a slightly larger share. At this point four years ago, White voters comprised 77% early voters; they now represent 72%. Black voters, meanwhile, have expanded their share of the early vote from 8% in 2016 to 11% currently. Hispanic voters comprise about 12% of those who’ve already voted in Florida, on par with 2016 levels.

Michigan: Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden heads to Michigan for campaign events Friday. Trump was the first Republican to carry the Wolverine State in a presidential election since 1988, defeating Hillary Clinton by less than half a percentage point.

In the 2018 midterms, Michigan voters passed a ballot measure that allowed any registered voter in the state to cast a ballot by mail without an excuse. That was a big change from 2016, and the difference in early voting between the two elections is clear.

About 3.5 times more Michiganders have already voted this year compared to this point in 2016, according to Catalist data, with the biggest changes apparent when looking at early voters by age.

At this point four years ago, 83% of those who had cast ballots already were 65 or older. Now, those voters only account for 53% of early voters. Every other age group accounts for a greater share of the pre-election vote now than they did at this point in 2016, but the largest increase has come from voters 50-64 who were 11% of the votes cast four years ago and are now 25%.

The racial breakdown of voters who’ve cast early ballots in Michigan has changed slightly from this point in 2016. 85% of Michigan voters so far are White, down from 88% four years ago. Black voters make up the second largest share at 11% (up slightly from 9% four years ago). Hispanic and Asian voters each make up 2% of those who have voted so far – both up a single point from 2016. 

Notably, this racial breakdown is still more White than Michigan’s final electorate in 2016. According to exit polls, 75% of Michigan voters were White, 15% were Black and 5% were Latino.

Take a look at the numbers:

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said in a statement that he will “proudly vote to confirm” President Trump's Supreme Court nominee judge Amy Coney Barrett when it comes to the Senate floor next week. 

He also defends the quick timeframe and process of the confirmation, and says the threat of court packing by Democrats won’t deter Republicans from moving forward.

Here's what happens next in Barrett's confirmation process:

Some background: The battle over the vacant seat of late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg has become a key 2020 campaign topic. Trump and Senate Republicans have been pushing to confirm Barrett before Election Day despite the outcry of Democrats.

At the fourth day of Barrett's confirmation hearings yesterday, Democratic senators moved to indefinitely delay the proceedings because millions of Americans are voting for the next president. They argued that there's never been a Supreme Court justice nominated this close to the election and confirmed before it. The Senate has taken half the average time to consider the nomination.

Republicans disagreed, saying that a Republican president and a Republican-led Senate confirming a conservative justice on the Supreme Court is compliant with the Constitution and the Senate's history.

Election Day is only 18 days away. The CNN Poll of Polls tracks the national average in the race for president between President Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden.

The poll of polls includes the most recent national telephone polls which meet CNN’s standards for reporting and which measure the views of registered or likely voters.

The poll of polls does not have a margin of sampling error.

Here's the latest polling average as of today:

More than 17 million ballots across 44 states and DC have already been cast in the 2020 election. It's a stunning testament to what could be a historically high voter turnout, fueled by a series of state law changes that allow more mail-in balloting with the coronavirus pandemic still gripping the country.

The state-by-state totals are massively over-running where the early vote was in the 2016 presidential race.

Here are a handful of vote comparisons in swing states, per CNN's political unit:

Florida

North Carolina

Georgia:

Michigan

Wisconsin

(Note: This voting information comes from CNN, Edison Research and Catalist – a data company that provides data, analytics and other services to Democrats, academics and non-profit issue advocacy organizations.)

In fact, in ALL of 2016, just over 46 million votes were cast early — whether in person or by mail. That means that, even though we are still 19 days from the election, more than one-third (37%) as many early votes have already been cast in 2020 as were cast in the entirety of the early voting in the 2016 presidential race.

These soaring numbers are backed up by what we are seeing in the states. On Monday in Georgia —the first day of in-person early voting — some people waited in lines for as long as 11 hours to cast their ballot. In Texas on Tuesday, its first day of in-person early voting, thousands waited in long lines to have their voice heard. Early in-person voting begins in North Carolina on Thursday

Read the full analysis here and visit CNN's voter guide to find your polling place, learn about early voting, and more.

The Democratic push to turn Georgia blue in November – and beyond — is getting another boost today with the launch of a new progressive super PAC planning to spend $2.5 million to boost turnout among young, minority voters.

Recent polling out of the state, which hasn’t gone for a Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton in 1992, shows former Vice President Joe Biden in a neck-and-neck race with President Trump. Georgia’s two US Senate seats, currently held by Republicans, are also on the ballot and facing tough Democratic challenges. (Both of those races could be headed toward January 2021 run-offs.)

“For decades, Georgia has been counted out and seen as unattainable for progressives,” Ryan Brown, who will lead New South Super PAC, said in a statement. “But the tide is changing and progressives have a very real chance at winning up and down the ballot if we speak to and invest in the right voters.”

There is a rush of Democratic money coming into Georgia right now as the presidential and Senate polls tighten, but Brown said his group planned to be in it for the long haul – as Democrats try to secure and expand on their gains.

“In Georgia, two Senate races are up for grabs, we have the opportunity to clinch the election for Biden and Harris, and we can flip the state house heading into the crucial redistricting,” Brown said. “Both the stakes and the possibilities of the Georgia elections this year warrant our attention and this large-scale investment.”

The 2020 contests follow a 2018 gubernatorial race that saw Republican Gov. Brian Kemp scratch out a narrow victory over Democrat Stacey Abrams, who fell short by a little more than 50,000 votes in a campaign marred by allegations of voter suppression. 

But Abrams emerged as a national Democratic star and the party — in a state where Trump’s approval ratings are routinely split — is now working to forge a coalition comprising liberal-leaning low-propensity voters, its moderate base and disaffected Republicans. 

The early voting numbers out of Georgia this week suggest the 2020 contests will not suffer for a lack of enthusiasm. More than 126,000 ballots were cast on Monday, the first day of early voting, up from about 91,000 on the same occasion in 2016.

Senior adviser to the Biden campaign, Symone Sanders, told CNN the former Vice President “intends to show up to the debate if there will be one.” At the moment, Joe Biden and President Trump are set to debate next Thursday.

In an ABC town hall last night Biden said he will demand President Trump take a Covid-19 test, and for that test to return negative, before he will participate in a debate. 

"Will you demand that President Trump take a test that day and that it be negative before you debate?" ABC’s George Stephanopoulos asked.

"Yeah," Biden replied, "By the way, before I came up here, I took another test, I've been taking it every day.”

He added, "I'm less concerned about me, but the people, the guys with the cameras, the people working in the, you know, the secret service guys you drive up with, all those people."

President Trump's campaign and the Republican National Committee announced a joint fundraising haul of $247.8 million in the month of September — up from the $210 million the GOP raised in August, but far behind the massive total raised by former Vice President Joe Biden and Democrats in the final stretch of the campaign.

Biden raised $383 million in September, breaking a monthly fundraising total record that his campaign had just set in August. Biden and the Democratic Party outraised Trump and the Republicans by $135 million in September.

By comparison, Hillary Clinton raised $154 million in September of 2016.

Trump's campaign has been raising and spending money at a historic clip, but Biden and the Democrats quickly turned the tables in August after the Democratic convention and the selection of California Sen. Kamala Harris as Biden's running mate.

In addition to raising significantly more money in both August and September, the Biden campaign also has more money in the bank to spend in the final month of race. The Trump campaign will report $251.4 million cash on hand, while Biden has $432 million.

Despite the $180 million disadvantage, the Trump campaign said it is confident they will have enough resources to sustain the effort to reelect the President.

In a tweet announcing the fundraising totals, Tim Murtaugh, the campaign's communications director, wrote, "President Trump hits final stretch with strength, resources, record & huge ground game needed to spread message and secure re-election."

On ABC, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden was explaining his plan to raise taxes on people making more than $400,000 per year. On NBC, President Donald Trump was equivocating about the existence of a satanic cult of pedophiles.

The problem with their town halls, which were drastically different in tone and substance: Americans could only pick one to watch.

Here are some key takeaways from the dueling town halls:

With the second presidential debate scrapped in the wake of Trump's coronavirus diagnosis, the two candidates instead agreed to nationally televised town halls, with Biden taking questions from voters in Philadelphia and Trump doing so in Miami.

The two are scheduled to debate just one more time before Election Day.

Read more about last night's event here.