State executive official elections, 2016

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2016 State Executive Elections

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General election date:
November 8, 2016

There were 93 state executive offices up for election across 23 states in 2016. Prior to the election, Democrats held 48 of the offices and Republicans held 41, which put Democrats at a greater partisan risk of losing positions. Republicans gained 12 offices at the state executive level in 2016 by winning 53 races up for election compared to 38 for the Democratic Party.

As a result of the election, Republicans held power in 33 governorships, 31 lieutenant governorships, 30 secretary of state offices, and 26 state attorney general positions across the United States. The 2016 elections resulted in Republicans netting two new state government trifectas and Democrats losing one trifecta, which left Republicans with trifecta control in 25 states compared to six states under Democratic trifecta control.

HIGHLIGHTS
  • Gubernatorial elections put trifecta control at risk in seven states, three of which were controlled by Democrats and four by Republicans before the election.
  • Republicans won three governorships previously held by Democrats. Democrats won the gubernatorial election in North Carolina, breaking a Republican trifecta.
  • Republicans gained two trifectas in Missouri and New Hampshire and ended a five-year Democratic trifecta in Vermont after winning gubernatorial elections in those states.

    • Overview

    The offices

    State executives act in many capacities according to the powers granted to them by their state's constitution. They are also charged with implementing and enforcing laws made by state legislatures. There are 748 executive seats spread across 13 distinct types of offices in the United States.[1] Of the 13 executive offices, only seven exist in all 50 states: governor, attorney general, superintendent of schools, insurance commissioner, agriculture commissioner, labor commissioner, and public service commissioner.

    Other common offices include lieutenant governor, secretary of state, treasurer, controller, auditor, and natural resources commissioner.

    The governor is the chief executive of a state’s government and other executive offices ordinarily report to him or her. The governor is also the only executive that is elected in all 50 states. Attorneys general, for example, are elected in 43 states but appointed by the governor in seven, while public service commissioners are appointed by the governor in 39 states and elected in 11 states.

    2016 elections

    On November 8, 2016, a total of 93 state executive seats were scheduled for election in 23 states. All 13 types of executive offices had an election in at least one state. Twelve states elected governors, including a special election in Oregon, and ten states elected attorneys general. Though Republicans held twice as many state executive offices as Democrats across the country, heading into the 2016 cycle Democrats held 48 of the 93 seats up for election while Republicans held 41 seats.[2] In 51 of the 93 seats up for election in 2016, incumbents ran for re-election.

    Republicans won 53 of the 93 seats up for election. In Missouri, Republicans won all five seats up for election, four of which had previously been held by Democrats. Republican Eric Greitens' victory in the gubernatorial race won the party trifecta control of the state, which also went to Donald Trump in the presidential election. Democrats retained control of the governorship in West Virginia, but Republicans managed to unseat two incumbent Democrats—secretary of state and agriculture commissioner—and won the election for state auditor for the first time since 1928. Republicans also picked up Washington's treasurer seat, which the party hadn't held since 1957. In Oregon, Republicans won the secretary of state seat for the first time in three decades.

    Republican down-ballot gains in traditionally blue states, such as Oregon and Washington, may have indicated that the one-party rule in those states weakened. The results in some former swing states, such as Missouri and West Virginia, showed increasing electoral strength for Republicans. However, presidential election years tend to see aggregate gains for the party winning presidential candidate and Republican down-ballot gains in blue states might have simply been reflective of this trend.

    Context of the 2016 elections

    Republicans looked to maintain trifecta control

    Republicans had trifecta control of state government in four of the 12 states holding gubernatorial elections in 2016: Indiana, North Carolina, North Dakota, and Utah. Democrats had trifecta control in three states: Delaware, Vermont, and Oregon. Trifecta control requires that one party holds the governorship in addition to a majority in the state senate and state house.

    Republicans gained trifectas in New Hampshire and Missouri after winning the governorships in those states. The party also ended a five-year Democratic trifecta when it won the governorship in Vermont. Republicans lost a trifecta as a result of the North Carolina gubernatorial election.

    Democrats were at greater relative risk in 2016

    Across the country, Republicans outnumbered Democrats in every state executive office, holding almost twice as many executive seats.[3] However, Democrats held about 50 percent of the total executive seats up for election in 2016, which created a partisan risk in that a disproportionate number of seats held by Democrats were being challenged compared to the actual partisan balance. Democrats entered the November 2016 elections in a position of greater relative risk than Republicans.

    Republicans held most gubernatorial offices

    U.S. governor elections
    2008-2014
    Year Total races Won
    Democratic Party         		Won
    Republican Party
    2008[4] 11 7 3
    2010 37 13 23
    2012 12 8 4
    2014 36 10 25

    Republicans gained two governor seats in 2014, in addition to two lieutenant governor and two attorney general seats. Heading into the November 2016 elections, Republicans held 31 governor seats, Democrats held 18, and independents held one. Of the 12 governor seats up for election in 2016, eight were held by Democrats that were elected to four-year terms during the 2012 presidential election cycle.[5]

    Republicans picked up three governorships after the 2016 elections in New Hampshire, Vermont, and Missouri. Democrats flipped the governor's seat in North Carolina.

    Higher voter turnout was expected

    State executive races across the country coincided with a highly competitive presidential election, which drives up voter turnout and attention for races down the ballot.[6] This increased turnout during presidential election years can significantly affect the partisan balance of state governments. In particular, offices elected during mid-presidential term elections disadvantage the party of the current president, a trend that has remained relatively constant since the Civil War. Presidential election years see aggregate gains for the party of the winning presidential candidate.[7][6]

    Ballotpedia’s analysis of gubernatorial elections over the past eight years (see table, right) showed that Democrats won a greater percentage of seats during the years that coincided with the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections, both of which were won by Democratic President Barack Obama. Mid-presidential term elections during this period favored Republican candidates.

    Forty-three states held elections for a total of 225 executive offices in 2014; the same year, voter turnout was the lowest recorded since 1942.[8] Voter turnout has dropped during mid-presidential term elections since the 1840s.[7]

    Competitiveness

    Ballotpedia’s first annual study of competitiveness in state executive elections reveals that 2016 elections were more competitive than recent election cycles on average.

    HIGHLIGHTS
  • Only 55 percent of incumbents ran for re-election in 2016, compared to about 67 percent in both 2014 and 2012.
  • Though fewer incumbents ran in 2016 than in 2012—when the same seats were up for election—the rate of elections that were open due to term limits did not change, indicating that more incumbents either retired from office or ran for new offices in 2016.
  • Aggregate partisan gains between 2011 and 2015 reflected the long-run trend of mid-term presidential elections disadvantaging the party of the sitting president.

    • Click here to view full data and analysis ►►►

    Offices up for election

    Gubernatorial elections

    There were 12 gubernatorial seats up for election in 2016. In addition to the 11 regularly scheduled elections, Oregon held a special election for governor due to the February 2015 resignation of former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D). Gov. Kate Brown (D), who succeeded Kitzhaber, sought election to the remainder of Kitzhaber's term, which was scheduled for regular election in 2018.[9] The following states elected governors in 2016:

    Lieutenant gubernatorial elections

    There were nine lieutenant gubernatorial seats on the ballot in 2016. These seats were up for election in Delaware, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota, Utah, Vermont, and Washington. New Hampshire and Oregon do not have lieutenant governors; in West Virginia, the President of the State Senate serves as de facto lieutenant governor and is elected from within the Senate. Only one seat changed party hands in 2016. Democrat/Progressive David Zuckerman won the lieutenant governor election in Vermont, which was open due to incumbent Republican Phil Scott’s successful bid for the governorship.

    Other offices

    There were 72 other state executive seats on the ballot in 2016. In addition to the regularly scheduled elections, Illinois and New Mexico held special elections for vacancies with terms expiring in 2018. New Mexico elected a secretary of state following the October 2015 resignation of Dianna Duran (R) after she was indicted on criminal charges. Illinois elected a comptroller following the death of Judy Baar Topinka (R). Topinka won re-election in November 2014 but died before swearing in for her new term. In a January 2015 special session, Illinois legislators approved a bill requiring special elections for vacancies in the offices of the attorney general, secretary of state, comptroller, and treasurer.[10] The following offices were up for election in 2016:


    By office

    Twenty-three states held 13 sets of elections for a total of 93 executive seats in November 2016. Browse these elections by office:

    Governor

    Lieutenant Governor

    Attorney General

    Secretary of State

    Treasurer



    Agriculture Commissioner

    Public Service Commissioner

    Public Education Commissioner

    Natural Resources Commissioner

    Auditor

    Comptroller

    Insurance Commissioner

    Superintendent of Schools

    Labor Commissioner

    Railroad Commissioner



    By state

    Twenty-three states held 13 sets of elections for a total of 93 executive seats in November 2016. Browse these elections by state:

    Alabama

    Alabama state executive official elections, 2016

    Arizona

    Arizona state executive official elections, 2016

    Delaware

    Delaware state executive official elections, 2016

    Georgia

    Georgia state executive official elections, 2016

    Illinois

    Illinois state executive official elections, 2016

    Indiana

    Indiana state executive official elections, 2016

    Louisiana

    Louisiana state executive official elections, 2016

    Missouri

    Missouri state executive official elections, 2016

    Montana

    Montana state executive official elections, 2016

    Nebraska

    Nebraska state executive official elections, 2016

    New Hampshire

    New Hampshire state executive official elections, 2016

    New Mexico

    New Mexico state executive official elections, 2016

    North Carolina

    North Carolina state executive official elections, 2016

    North Dakota

    North Dakota state executive official elections, 2016

    Oklahoma

    Oklahoma state executive official elections, 2016

    Oregon

    Oregon state executive official elections, 2016

    Pennsylvania

    Pennsylvania state executive official elections, 2016

    South Dakota

    South Dakota state executive official elections, 2016

    Utah

    Utah state executive official elections, 2016

    Texas

    Texas state executive official elections, 2016

    Vermont

    Vermont state executive official elections, 2016

    Washington

    Washington state executive official elections, 2016

    West Virginia

    West Virginia state executive official elections, 2016








    Election dates

    General election

    November 8

    Voter turnout

    Political scientist Michael McDonald's United States Elections Project studied voter turnout in the 2014 election by looking at the percentage of eligible voters who headed to the polls. McDonald used voting-eligible population (VEP), or the number of eligible voters independent of their current registration status, to calculate turnout rates in each state on November 4. He also incorporated ballots cast for the highest office in each state into his calculation. He estimated that 81,687,059 ballots were cast in the 50 states plus the District of Columbia, representing 35.9 percent of the VEP.[11] By comparison, 61.6 percent of VEP voted in the 2008 presidential election and 58.2 percent of VEP voted in the 2012 presidential election.[12]

    Quick facts

    • According to PBS Newshour, voter turnout in the 2014 midterms was the lowest since the 1942 midterms, which took place during the nation's involvement in World War II.[13]
    • Forty-three states and the District of Columbia failed to surpass 50 percent turnout in McDonald's analysis.
    • The three states with the lowest turnout according to McDonald's analysis were Texas (28.3 percent), Tennessee (28.6 percent), and Indiana (28.8 percent).
    • Maine (58.5 percent), Wisconsin (56.5 percent), and Colorado (54.5 percent) were the three states with the highest turnout.
    • There were only 12 states that increased voter turnout in 2014 compared to the 2010 midterm elections.[14]

    Note: Information from the United States Elections Project was last updated on December 16, 2014.

    See also

    2016 elections:

    Previous elections:

    Ballotpedia exclusives:

    Footnotes

    1. ↑ There are 13 state executive offices as Ballotpedia defines the term, however there are other executive offices in some states that are not covered by Ballotpedia.
    2. ↑ One seat was held by an independent, two were held by nonpartisans and one is vacant.
    3. ↑ Republicans held about 30 percent of state executive seats, Democrats held about 16 percent, 40 percent were nonpartisan, and the remainder were held by independents or were vacant.
    4. ↑ Politico, “Election Map 2008,” accessed February 13, 2016
    5. ↑ With the exception of Oregon, whose current Gov. Kate Brown (D) succeeded Democrat John Kitzhaber after his resignation from office.
    6. ↑ 6.0 6.1 Campbell, J. E. (1987) "The revised theory of surge and decline." American Journal of Political Science, 965-979.
    7. ↑ 7.0 7.1 Pew Research Center, “Voter turnout always drops off for midterm elections, but why?” July 24, 2014
    8. ↑ TIME, "Voter Turnout in Midterm Elections Hits 72-Year Low," November 10, 2014
    9. ↑ CNN, "Meet Oregon's next governor," February 16, 2015
    10. ↑ Fox 2 Now, "Quinn signs 2016 comptroller special election bill," January 10, 2015
    11. ↑ United States Elections Project, "2014 November General Election Turnout Rates," November 7, 2014
    12. ↑ TIME, "Voter Turnout in Midterm Elections Hits 72-Year Low," November 10, 2014
    13. ↑ PBS, "2014 midterm election turnout lowest in 70 years," November 10, 2014
    14. ↑ U.S. News & World Report, "Midterm Turnout Down in 2014," November 5, 2014
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    2016 state executive official elections
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